Paper Arrival Rates

As the deadline passed, I just closed the submission site for ICSE NIER 2013. How many hours in advance do authors typically submit their paper?

To answer that question, I collected some data on the time at which each paper was submitted. (I just looked at initial submissions, not at re-submissions). Here is a graph showing new paper arrivals, sorted by hours before the deadline, grouped in bins of 2 hours.

As you can see, we received a little less than 30 submissions more than 2 days in advance. But the vast majority likes to submit in the final 24 hours. The last paper was submitted just 5 minutes before the deadline.

Accumulating this graph and displaying the data as percentage yields the following chart:

This gives some insight in the percentage of papers submitted at different time slots before the deadline.

Let’s draw the following easy to remember conclusions from this graph:

  • 1/6th of the papers are submitted more than 48 hours ahead of time.
  • 1/3d of the papers are submitted 24 hours before the deadline
  • Half of the papers are submitted 14 hours before the dealine
  • 2/3d of the papers are submitted 10 hours before the deadline
  • 1/6th of the papers are submitted in the final 4 hours before the deadline

Is this relevant? If this is valid, as a conference organizer you can guestimate the number of submissions, say, 24 hours ahead of time, which is when you’d have 1/3d of the papers in.

But also if you’re an author this can be interesting. Conference systems like EasyChair give your paper an ID that equals the number of submissions so far. So if you submit at, say, 10 hours before the deadline, and get paper ID 200, the chart suggests that you may end up competing with 300 submissions in total.

The chart may very well be different for other conferences. NIER is part of ICSE which is held in California, with a deadline at 12pm Pago Pago time, on a Friday, soliciting 4-page papers, without requiring pre-submission of abstracts. These are all circumstances that will affect submission behavior. If you have pointers to similar data for other conferences let me know, and I’ll update the post.


5 thoughts on “Paper Arrival Rates

  1. It is really interesting to see these graphs and to see that most authors leave things to the final hours. I’ve certainly done that on many occasions :-). However, I am rather curious about the probability of acceptance. Are the papers that are submitted earlier also more likely to be accepted?

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  4. I was intrigued by this and did something similar for this year’s MSR Mining Challenge (

    The overall result is that first-time paper submission was even closer to the final deadline than in the ICSE NIER 2012 case:

    10% of papers are submitted 48 hours before.
    A third of submissions is in 10 hours before the deadline
    Half of the submissions are in 8 hours before
    66%, 6 hours before (this is easy to remember)
    80%, 2 hours before.

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